The 12/3/21 dispatch.

Happy Friday! Hope everyone has had a great week!

We’ll begin this newsletter with the situation in Ukraine again. Not much has changed, which in itself is quite worrying given the ramped-up tensions already in the area. (If you want a look at what a second Russian invasion of Ukraine would look like, check out Tuesday’s newsletter. I covered that in depth.)

But The Economist pointed out that some military analysts predict an invasion might begin in January. (See article below.)

The Economist @TheEconomist

The 100,000 Russian troops massed near the border are more than mere theatre; Russia is setting up field hospitals and calling up its reserves

econ.stThe Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatistsBut now war of a different kind looms

The list of reasons for this are the following, according to the article:

The flat, muddy terrain of south-eastern Ukraine will be frozen solid by then, allowing Russian tanks to roll in. It is in the middle of the deployment cycle for the conscripts who make up much of Russia’s ground forces. And Russia may find itself with a pretext for invasion, since the new year has in the past brought front-line flare-ups in Ukraine’s war against Russian-backed separatists. Besides, the 100,000 Russian troops massed near the border are more than mere theatre; Russia is setting up field hospitals and calling up its reserves.

The article ends by saying that Putin is “probably bluffing.”

But the thing about Putin is you can never be sure.

And as stated below, Russia will often blame others for doing what it planned to do all along.

Alexander Marquardt @MarquardtA

Blinken warned of this on Tuesday, saying that part of Russia's "playbook is to attempt to create or manufacture a so-called provocation as justification for something Russia has been planning to do all along."

Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk

'Blinken is likely to warn NATO allies Wednesday that Putin may be preparing a ploy in which he falsely claims that Russian-backed forces have been attacked by Ukraine, as a pretext for taking action' https://t.co/TdZFvynj0X

One thing Russia ISN’T happy about are stories such, as this:

Department of Defense 🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense

NEWS: Aegis Ashore in Poland on Target for 2022

defense.govAegis Ashore in Poland on Target for 2022The Aegis Ashore capability planned for Poland is moving ahead and is scheduled to be operational by the end of next year, the program executive officer for Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense said.

Russia is increasingly frustrated with NATO’s westward expansion, but it’s Russia’s aggression that continues to fuel that push. As a reminder, American forces were leaving Europe in droves until Putin decided to get violent again, invading parts of Ukraine ten years ago, sending jets to Syria, etc.

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In news that isn’t too big, but could end up becoming big, there was this today:

Blinken says Iran does not seem serious about returning to compliance with nuclear deal.

As a reminder, not only has Israel said it would never allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, but even U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in the same article that “Washington will pursue other options if diplomacy fails.”

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And finally, in news that shouldn’t surprise anyone, China continues to try to push around its neighbors.

Derek J. Grossman @DerekJGrossman

Indonesian lawmaker responds to Chinese threats in SCS: “Our reply was very firm, that we are not going to stop the drilling because it is our sovereign right.”

reuters.comEXCLUSIVE China protested Indonesian drilling, military exercisesChina told Indonesia to stop drilling for oil and natural gas in maritime territory that both countries regard as their own during a months-long standoff in the South China Sea earlier this year, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

It’s actions such as these, and the one below, that continues to galvanize the world against China. (It didn’t have to be this way.)

Stan R. Mitchell, author @StanRMitchell

Green sky at night over Taiwan’s islands heralds a different kind of squid game

washingtonpost.comGreen sky at night over Taiwan’s islands heralds a different kind of squid gameChinese fishing boats mounted with green LED lights surround the Matsu chain, unnerving local residents.

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Moving along, in tech news, here were a couple of cool stories that I came across:

Defense News @defense_news

Israel and South Korea to boost collaboration on loitering munitions trib.al/d2YA6B3

U.S. Army @USArmy

.@armyfutures is hard at work looking for the #USArmy's next generation of combat vehicles! From robotic battle #tanks to other combat vehicles, their Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team is exploring ways to advance future #Soldier lethality. #ArmyTech

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Finally, before we end with some motivation, I came across the following below. As a huge fan of A-10 Warthogs, this just completely blew my mind.

Did you know that A-10s are great fighters against other aircraft if the confrontation is up close and personal? (Yeah, I didn’t either.)

Air Power🎄 @RealAirPower1

This badass A-10 has "killed" it all, including an F-16 AND an F-22 👀 Must have been a epic dogfight! #AvGeek #Aviation #USAF #Warthog

Air Power🎄 @RealAirPower1

At low speeds the A-10 can take on the best of the best, AND win. Check out this cool HUD video:

youtu.beF-16 vs A-10 Old-School DogfightConventional wisdom says slow attack jets like the A-10 can’t dogfight. Watch and learn ...

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Thanks for sticking around to the end. Here’s some motivation to round out your week:

CSM Nicholas M. Curry @realPatriot_7

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That’s it for this post. And as a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love and support your fellow Americans:

As always, please share this post if you enjoyed it, as well as comment below.

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Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I write fast-paced military and mystery thrillers. You can find all ten books here: amazon.com.