The 12/7/21 dispatch.

Dec 07, 2021

Happy Tuesday! Hope everyone had a great weekend, and that your week is off to a good start! (Also, that you’ve at least started your Christmas shopping!)

Beginning with the biggest story, the Russian drama on the border of Ukraine continues un-abated.

The U.S. and Russia held a two-hour call today, regarding the issue.

Reporting on the issue, CBS stated:

The two leaders held a video call for two hours on Tuesday, after U.S. intelligence officials warned of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine as soon as January.
"President Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European Allies about Russia's escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine and made clear that the U.S. and our Allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation," the White House summary of the call said. "President Biden reiterated his support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy."

It’s still too early to know if the phone call achieved anything, but I thought a great summary of the situation is provided below, in this short interview with the former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul.

Asked if he thinks Russia will invade, he says the CIA director doesn’t know, the U.S. doesn’t know, he (as an expert on Russia) doesn’t know, and more importantly, even Putin doesn’t know.

McFaul claims Russia is certainly prepared to invade, but reminds the audience that Putin plays up the unpredictability. It’s a great four-min video, if you have a moment.

Also, here’s an updated reminder of what an invasion could look like:

Rob Lee @RALee85

"U.S. intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops" "The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel" washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Rob Lee @RALee85

The Ukrainian MoD graphic from late November showed 40 Russian BTGs near Ukraine's borders, but the US IC assesses there are now 50 (maybe they used different distances). 100 BTGs would be 2/3rds of Russia's total BTGs. There are also more units nearby not in the red areas. 2/

In other news, the U.S. showed China that it’s not messing around regarding human rights in the country of a billion people. Though it’s already being downplayed by the Chinese, this was a pretty big deal to me. And it could lead to other Western companies deciding to veer away from China. You can almost feel the momentum in the West turning against wanting to cooperate/build/invest in China.

BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking

US announces diplomatic boycott of China's 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing

bbc.inUS diplomats to boycott 2022 Beijing Winter OlympicsThe White House says no US diplomats will attend the games in China, over human rights concerns.

Also, while we’re on the topic of China, I had meant to share this weeks ago, but rarely have the space. But here it is now, better late than never. And still relevant.

The Associated Press @AP

China has the world's largest distant water fishing fleet. After decades of overfishing close to home, thousands of Chinese ships have pushed into the high seas off South America, stirring concerns about exhausting fish stocks and illegal fishing. apne.ws/b43IwqB

I haven’t mentioned India in a long time, but here’s one of the challenges that it (and the U.S.) faces as we try to wean countries off of Russian-made weapons.