The Stan R. Mitchell 1/14/22 dispatch.

Happy Friday, everyone! Hope everyone has had a great week!

The biggest news by far is the likely invasion of Ukraine for a third time by Russian forces.

Russia continues to push forces toward Ukraine.

Rob Lee @RALee85

Nona-S 120mm mortars, T-80BV tanks, MT-LB, and BMP-3. Almost certainly from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade traveling through Krasnoyarsk. 545/

4emberlen @4emberlen

Красноярский край 14.01.2022 https://t.co/NEjnkGm7d9

See also this:

Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael

Russian preparations for an operation are steadily advancing. Support and logistics trickling in, formations with personnel sent from Eastern MD. The outlook, in my view, has grown worse.

Dara Massicot @MassDara

Russia hasn’t stopped troop flow. If talks fail this week with no future discussions—it probably spells the end of the strategic warning period. Once that period ends, there will only be tactical warning left for Ukraine. Things like: when RS forces are in place & when ops start.

And a timeline for the invasion is starting to become clearer.

Natasha Bertrand @NatashaBertrand

“The Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February,” the official said. “We saw this playbook in 2014 with Crimea.”

Just today, Russia hacked many of Ukraine’s government websites.

Pwn All The Things @pwnallthethings

Ukraine's MFA, MOD, State Emergency Service, Cabinet of Ministers, and Ministry of Education sites all hacked/defaced ru.interfax.com.ua/news/general/7…

And The Washington Post reports that Russia will again blame Ukraine for this invasion.

Stan R. Mitchell, author @StanRMitchell

Russia planning potential sabotage operations in Ukraine, U.S. says

washingtonpost.comRussia planning potential sabotage operations in Ukraine, U.S. saysThe United States also accused Moscow of planting fabricated Ukrainian provocations in social and state media.

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy warned of this a couple of days ago.

Chris Murphy @ChrisMurphyCT

An important warning Nuland makes here is that Russia is planning "false flag" ops. In other words, they are going to try to create the pretext for an invasion, like inventing an attack on Russian troops that didn't happen.

Under Secretary Victoria Nuland @UnderSecStateP

Russia has created this crisis out of whole cloth and will have to justify to its people why it is stoking a potentially very bloody & costly conflict for Russia, rather than focusing on its own citizens’ health and on Russia’s own significant challenges in building back better. https://t.co/pg9PcquNtV

As a reminder, Russia’s initial invasion of Donbas was partly to “protect” folks there, who are of Russian descent/citizenry.

I’m not sure what else to add. I hope Putin blinks, and I wish we’d flood Ukraine with more American troops to allow for deterrance versus months (if not years) of bloody fighting, but it is what it is. And one COULD argue that we’re already stepping up on the deterrance front.

In December, the U.S. delivered “part of a $60 million security assistance package, including small arms and ammunition.” (Link: US small arms and ammo arrive in Ukraine as Pentagon details troops to train country's military.)

From the same story above, for 2021, the U.S. provided $450 million in security assistance to Ukraine. And going back to 2014, when Russia invaded and occupied the Crimean peninsula, the US has provided more than $2.5 billion in aid to Ukraine.

We’re also currently already training their forces here in America.

Zach Dorfman @zachsdorfman

NEW: “The CIA is overseeing a secret intensive training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel. The program, which started in 2015, is based at an undisclosed facility in the Southern U.S.”

yahoo.comCIA-trained Ukrainian paramilitaries may take central role if Russia invadesThe CIA is overseeing a secret training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel.

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Moving to Iraq, there was some news there.

Evan Kohlmann @IntelTweet

Reuters: "Rockets fired at U.S. embassy in Baghdad shot down, no casualties -Iraqi military officials"

reuters.comRockets fired at U.S. embassy in Baghdad hurt Iraqi woman, child -militaryA rocket attack directed against the U.S. embassy in Baghdad resulted in a child and a woman being wounded, the Iraqi military said in a statement, a rare occasion where Iraqis have been hurt in such an incident.

This isn’t the first time that Iranian militia groups have gotten fiesty with drones or rockets. (See my past couple of newsletters for more on that.)

Also, here’s some cool video from the event.

Nafiseh Kohnavard @nafisehkBBC

Breaking US embassy’s anti rocket system C-RAM in Baghdad activated a few seconds ago I heard explosions Video taken by me

You can learn more about C-RAMs here: https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/ms-c-ram_lpws/.

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In the spying front, there was this:

Shibley Telhami @ShibleyTelhami

Four Israeli women, all Jewish immigrants from Iran, charged by Israel with providing intel to Iranian agent

haaretz.comFour Israelis charged with providing intel to Iranian agentFour women, all Jewish immigrants from Iran, were recruited over social media and asked by their handler to photograph sites in Israel, including U.S. Embassy, according to the indictment served against them

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Finally, in tech news, here is a couple of items:

Breaking Defense @BreakingDefense

Lockheed Martin is preparing to send its latest directed energy weapon to San Diego for installation onboard an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer following successful testing at a Navy facility last year. breakingdefense.com/2022/01/destro… (by @JustinSKatz)

Status-6 @Archer83Able

A quadcopter with a mounted QBZ-95 automatic rifle used during counter-terrorism exercises of the special forces of the People's Armed Police of China.

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Before we end, some motivation for the weekend. (Get after your goals.)

Great Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotes

I always tried to turn every disaster into an opportunity. - John D. Rockefeller

Great Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotes

If your ship doesn't come in, swim out to it. - Jonathan Winters

That’s it for this edition. And as a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love and support your fellow Americans. The vast majority of Americans are decent, loving, great people, and we must unite this country again so that we can at least discuss issues with dialogue and solemnity; not yelling, anger, and threats.

Please don’t name-call the other side on social media, such as Twitter, Facebook, etc. They are mothers and fathers and folks not much different than you.

As always, please share this post if you enjoyed it, as well as comment below.

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Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I write scorching-fast books. 70,000-plus sold. 4-plus star average rating. You can find all eleven books here: amazon.com.