The Stan R. Mitchell report for 1/21/22.

Happy Friday, everyone! Hope everyone has had a great week!

One short note before we begin this edition. Welcome, new subscribers!! We added more new subscribers in a single week than we ever have since I launched this six months ago!

So, welcome new readers. And for my regulars, and the new folks, remember to spread the word about this and invite your one or two friends that might dig military matters as much as you do! (I know this isn’t for everyone, and it never will be, but I love watching it grow.)

Moving to news, is it possible NOT to begin with Ukraine? No, it is not.

The situation remains tense, scary, and more likely than not that Russia will invade. You can find plenty of evidence of that in the previous newsletter, if you missed that or want a refresher.

I think we have to begin this edition with this perfect summary of the situation from a man who’s been based as a reporter in Ukraine since 2014. He’s also a former U.S. Air Force special operations pilot, so he’s legit and not one to over-inflate. Please take two mins to watch this and understand what’s at stake.

Nolan Peterson @nolanwpeterson

My remarks for a panel last night, Jan. 18, about the Russian threat to Ukraine. “I think it will be one of the great crimes of our time if the democracies of the world let this invasion happen…Have we learned nothing since World War II?”

The Washington Post was jam-packed the past few days with maps and articles about the situation. (Such as the one below. Web link here: Four maps that explain the Russia-Ukraine conflict.)

President Biden stumbled in a news conference this week, saying that the United States would differentiate between a full-scale invasion and a “minor incursion.” The White House clarified almost immediately that the United States would not accept even a “minor incursion.”

The remarks matter greatly because while Putin wants the world to think pro-Russian locals in Ukraine were behind the war, that’s not really what happened. Shashank Joshi, a defense editor at The Economist, reminds us that “Russia did not take the Donbas (the eastern part of Ukraine) with hybrid warfare in 2014. It took it with conventional warfare.”

Rob Lee reminds us it was about 20,000 troops, or about a division worth of fighting power.

Rob Lee @RALee85

To the extent that Russia attempted hybrid warfare, it occurred in July 2014 and failed. By August, Ukrainian forces were about to take back the Donbas. Russia was saved by superior conventional military power. A division-sized element of tank, mechanized infantry, and artillery.

Eli Lake @EliLake

The reason why Biden’s remarks on a “minor incursion” are so dangerous is because Russia used hybrid warfare in their last invasion of Ukraine. They denied for months their forces were there. If that is now cost free, then we should expect a repeat of 2014.

The Washington Post reports that a war could be anything from new cyberattacks, which have already begun, to missile strikes, to a “full-on march on Kyiv.”

The West and Europe have ramped up their anger about the situation. The British are sending anti-tank missiles. (See below.)

George Allison @geoallison

British transport aircraft are now in their third day of delivering "thousands" of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine in the face of a massive build-up of Russian troops.

ukdefencejournal.org.ukThird day of British weapon flights to UkraineBritish transport aircraft are now in their third day of delivering “thousands” of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine in the face of a massive build-up of Russian troops.

And they’re also sending troops to help train the Ukrainians. (30 British Army Rangers arrived in Ukraine on Thursday to train the Ukrainian army on these anti tank weapons, reports Jennifer Griffin.)

An even bigger deal is the news that broke just today that the United States allowed the sale of Stinger missiles to Ukraine. These anti-air missiles are quite a game-changer for ground forces.

Paul McLeary @paulmcleary

Stinger missiles will be a new capability for the Ukrainians - they can take down helicopters. It's a big deal.

Artis Pabriks @Pabriks

The Baltic states will send “Stinger” and “Javelin” systems, as well as various individual equipment to help Ukraine to strengthen its defences. I strongly urge Russia to de-escalate situation at the border with Ukraine and respect its sovereignty.

More on this news about Stinger missiles in this story in Politico: U.S. approves allied weapons shipments to Ukraine as worries mount.

Vote Vets has been urging the passage of the Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act. (See below.)

VoteVets @votevets

A Russian invasion of Ukraine may be unavoidable at this point. To the degree that we may still be able to stop it, Congress must pass @SenatorMenendez and @SenatorShaheen's Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act. 1/2

Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act seems to have quite a bit of bi-partisan support, but I have no idea if it will pass. There are other bills that are similar to it.

For now, we just continue to wait and hope that Russia doesn’t make this horrific decision. And we give thanks that the West and Europe are responding to this aggression and preparing to punish Putin if he makes this catastrophic decision.

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Moving along to news that most surprised me since Tuesday, there was this:

I’m honestly still trying to process both this news and my feelings toward this.

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Moving along, in Afghanistan news, there was this about aid to the impoverished country:

Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNC

US pledges $308 million to Afghanistan, $780 million since pulling out from Afghanistan. UN warns country on verge of famine. US rock bands team up to keep focus on Afghanistan and the growing humanitarian crisis.

video.foxnews.comUS donated $780 million to Afghanistan since pulling out from Taliban-controlled countryNational security correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports on the humanitarian crisis, including food insecurity, unfolding in Afghanistan on ‘The Story.’

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In China news, a couple of things worth pointing out since our Tuesday edition.

First, there was this, which was disturbing:

Dan Lamothe @DanLamothe

"The United States Olympic & Paralympic Committee is encouraging Team USA to use disposable or “burner” phones instead of bringing their own devices to China, because of possible surveillance during the Games that begin Feb. 4."

wsj.comTeam USA Advises Athletes Heading to Beijing Olympics to Leave Their Phones at HomeThe U.S. joins Great Britain, Canada, the Netherlands in taking precautions against being monitored through technology.

And also this observation, about how the Biden administration is becoming increasingly clear on where it stands in regards to China.

Derek J. Grossman @DerekJGrossman

Consider how Biden admin’s language has evolved on China after one year in office. Started with US is in “extreme competition” vs China. Then over the summer admin emphasized need for “guard rails.” Now “responsibly managing competition” is key. Reality must be sinking in.

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And in tech news this week, there was this:

Defense One @DefenseOne

The U.S. Navy is considering installing autonomous technology currently used on crewless ships on warships driven by sailors as a way to improve safety on the high seas | @MarcusReports

buff.lyUS Navy May Put Autonomous Tech on Crewed Ships to Prevent CollisionsIt’s the same technology already being used on uncrewed vessels.

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Finally, let’s end with some motivation and wisdom.

How about this for some motivation?!

The Independent @Independent

This 80-year-old bodybuilder has some important fitness advice for you ind.pn/2mJkH4n

What’s your excuse again?

Inspired Motivation Quotes @IMQuotes_Videos

"When your desires are strong enough, you will appear to possess superhuman powers to achieve." -- Napoleon Hill #MotivationalQuotes

Great Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotes

You can't build a reputation on what you are going to do. - Henry Ford

Inspired Motivation Quotes @IMQuotes_Videos

Discover your passion, and stick with it. #Quotes

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That’s it for this edition. And as a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love and support your fellow Americans. The vast majority of Americans are decent, loving, great people, and we must unite this country again so that we can at least discuss issues with dialogue and solemnity; not screams and threats.

I beg of you, please don’t name-call the other side on social media, such as Twitter, Facebook, etc. They are mothers and fathers and folks not much different than you.

You can be the change we all want to see. (And most of those who are loudest are also those who are the most scared. You can only win them by showing love and kindness.)

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Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I write scorching-fast books. 70,000-plus sold. 4-plus star average rating. You can find all eleven books here: amazon.com.

P.P.S. You can also find out more about me, with lots of FAQs about my military background, at my website: stanrmitchell.com.