The Stan R. Mitchell report for 5/3/22.

Happy Tuesday, everyone!

Not a whole lot has happened in Ukraine since our last newsletter. The Russians are bogged down, and even being pushed back in some areas.

Some civilians from Mariupol at the Azovstal steel plant have been rescued. That is great news, and the defenders that remain are still somehow holding out.

Here’s the latest news I saw about the situation just prior to publication.

Hromadske Int. @Hromadske

Azovstal was shelled with naval artillery all night of May 2, says the Commander of the 12th Brigade of the National Guard Denys Schlega. There are about 200 civilians left at the steel work, including 20 children, as well as more than 500 wounded soldiers

I know I’m probably holding out to the impossible, but the below map gives me some hope.

Ukrainian forces appear to be about one hundred miles from Mariupol and the defenders at the steel plant. (Look roughly in the middle of the map.)

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien

Here is a map with a distance marker, you can see just how long a line they have to cover. Seems that the area around Kharkiv is not as well defended.

Part of me wishes the Ukrainians would do an all-out push to rescue those trapped there, but I have to remind myself that every town and city currently occupied faces horrendous threats. Russian troops are sending people to filtration camps, as well as sending them all the way to Russia itself.

Families are being separated, men are being executed, and women and girls are being raped.

These realities, as horrific as they are to consider, are just the facts.

But the Ukrainians are taking the fight to the Russians now.

Speaking more broadly than merely the area of Mariupol, it’s remarkable how things have changed in Ukraine since the early days of the invasion.

Take a look at these two maps.

Ukraine War Map @War_Mapper

A comparison of the height of Russian control (18 March) and the most recent control.

And it’s just beginning. The Russians have no idea what they are in for as with each passing day, the Ukrainians grow stronger. Take this news, for example.

Gordon Lubold @glubold

more than 200 Ukrainian artillerymen have been trained on the M777 artillery system the US is providing, a senior defense official tells reporters, as the fight unfolds in the Donbas

The devastation this artillery will bring is nicely laid out in the article below.

Task & Purpose @TaskandPurpose

'The king of battle' — How US artillery in the hands of Ukrainians may reshape the war with Russia

bit.ly‘The king of battle’ — How US artillery in the hands of Ukrainians may reshape the war with RussiaWe’ve always called it ‘the king of battle’”

As the article states:

Even in this age of modern – and often over-engineered – weapons systems, artillery has proven its worth time and again on the battlefield. During the 2017 fight to drive the Islamic State group from its former capital of Raqqa, Syria, a Marine artillery detachment fired so many 155 mm rounds in support of Syrian Democratic Forces that they burned out the barrels of two of their M777 howitzers.

Russia’s issues are stark. Besides fielding conscripts and lacking the motivation that comes naturally from fighting to defend their homeland, additional new details emerge almost daily of how pathetic Russian equipment truly is.

Take for instance what their troops ride in.

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling

The autoloader is 1 of 100's flaws in Russian design in the production of military equipment. Two additional examples. Here's the rear of the BMP, a RU infantry carrier. Note the cramped compartment. Also note how the door has big bulges. Those are fuel tanks. 11/

Look how cramped this vehicle is. AND, how there are fuel tanks literally in the back door, just waiting to get shot up.

While it’s true Russia could impose a draft and bring in additional troops several months from now, it would take too long to train them for them to have much effect, in my opinion. And the Russian economy is about to get hit again. With an even bigger impact than all the previous hits it’s taken.

Europe is looking seriously now to places like Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo for its energy needs.

Daniel Yergin, an energy historian and vice chairman of S&P Global, summed it up perfectly in an article to the Washington Post: “Two months ago, the Europeans could not possibly have imagined shutting the door on Russian energy, and now it’s only a question at this point of how long will it take. And it’s happening faster than would have been imagined possible only two months ago. Putin in eight weeks of war has destroyed what he spent 22 years building: integrating Russia into the world economy.”

You can read the entire article below, though admittedly there will be short-term pain for Europe with this situation, as the article lays out.

The Washington Post @washingtonpost

The next 18 months are going to be a harrowing time for Europe, as the impacts of high prices ripple around the world and governments struggle to power their factories, heat their homes and keep their electricity plants running.

wapo.stRussian threats redraw the global energy map

It seems that someone within Russia’s boundaries will surely try to take out Putin soon. The insanity of this invasion proves more and more mad and fatal with every passing day.

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While we’re on the topic of Ukraine, I wanted to take a much closer look at how drones and missiles are completely re-shaping the battlefield.

And they’re often field-expedient/modified and not even used as designed.

Take for example this item, where a Russian helicopter is shot down by a Ukrainian anti-tank missile. (Probably more punch than needed, but still deadly effective.)

Conflict News @Conflicts

VIDEO: Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian helicopter with Stugna-P anti-tank missile. - @Kochevenko

And then there’s this.

Kyle Glen @KyleJGlen

Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade destroy a Russian tank by dropping an explosive from a drone.

I wanted to show how the Ukrainians are doing these attacks, by sharing this excellent thread by @ChrisO_wiki.

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

By now, many will have seen the video of a Ukrainian drone dropping a small bomb through the sunscreen (!) of a car driven by Russian soldiers. Here's a short thread on how it was done (with thanks to @ian_matveev, on whose thread this is based). /1

(He’s referring to this tweet.)

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

For the attack, a modified VOG-17 grenade was used. A fin and a front part, created on a 3D printer, are added. The VOG-17 is a Soviet-era 30x120 mm fragmentation grenade with a claimed effective radius of 7m, covering an area of about 150 m². /2

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

It weighs about 350g (12.3oz) A hobbyist drone like a DJI Phantom 3 is easily capable of carrying one of these. As two grenades were used in this attack, it suggests that a bigger drone was used, two drones were used or the same drone was used to attack twice in succession. /3

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

The modifications to the grenade are simple, but as the video shows, they enable good aerodynamic performance and high accuracy. /4

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

The VOG-17 grenade itself contains only 36g (1.2oz) of explosive and can't seriously damage equipment. But there is a lot of such ammunition in Ukraine. It's usually fired from an AG-17 automatic grenade launcher, a Soviet equivalent of the US Mk 19. /5

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

Low-cost hobbyist drones armed with small modified grenades provide a cheap and effective weapon against individual soldiers. Factions in Syria and Iraq used them to some extent, but they've really come into their own in Ukraine. /6

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

But how do you destroy an armoured vehicle with an off-the-shelf drone? Ukraine appears to have been using a few different approaches. One of the most effective has been to repurpose the RKG-3, an old Soviet-era type of anti-tank grenade dating to 1950. /7

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

In 2020, Ukraine's PJSC Mayak Plant demonstrated a drone bomb conversion for the RKG-3 - attaching 3D-printed fins to convert it into the RKG-1600. It weighs about 1kg (2 lb), requiring the use of a larger drone. /8

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

In 2020, Ukraine's PJSC Mayak Plant demonstrated a drone bomb conversion for the RKG-3 - attaching 3D-printed fins to convert it into the RKG-1600. It weighs about 1kg (2 lb), requiring the use of a larger drone. /8

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

Another tactic appears to be the use of what are likely to be aerially-dropped mortar rounds - a very simple and cheap option, particularly against weakly armoured vehicles such as these Russian BMP-3s (with only about 10mm of top armour). /10

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

The effect of these can be seen in the video below. /11

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

The cost-effectiveness of these things is extraordinary. An octocopter drone costs maybe $10k, a Phantom 3 costs around $500. A mortar or RKG-1600 probably costs under $100. Each BMP-3 cost the Russians $796k. Add to that the potential cost of a lost crew. /12

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

You can bet that military strategists will be watching this with great interest. Drones are now able to effectively snipe soldiers and equipment with great precision, likely undetected, at any time of the day or night and in most weather conditions. /13

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

Even if you're camouflaged, bivouacked or behind the front lines, a drone armed with a small bomb could be overhead at any moment. Drone pilots are the new snipers of the 21st century, and are likely to be just as much feared by their targets. /end

It’s kind of crazy to think that these drones are the new snipers of the 21st Century, but it’s also hard to disagree.

These drones are completely transforming the battlefield.

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Moving along, we’ve talked some about the expansion of NATO. Following up on that, here is an article that explains some of the details involved in that happening, and how it will take some time to occur.

Defense News @defense_news

Widespread, if not universal, support exists within NATO for Finnish membership. Unfortunately for Finland, and perhaps for the alliance, there is likely to be a significant delay.

defensenews.comShould Finland join NATO? Consider these factors.Widespread, if not universal, support exists within NATO for Finnish membership. Unfortunately for Finland, and perhaps for the alliance, there is likely to be a significant delay.

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Enough news for this edition. Let’s end with some motivation and wisdom.

First, a relevant, on-topic tweet that shows we can ALL do something to help those causes that we care about. Even if you’re a small child.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent

⚡️Six-year-old girl raises Hr 5,000 ($165) for Ukrainian military by playing flute on the street. Solomiia Reut from Dnipro raised half the sum needed to buy one bulletproof vest, and her mother fundraised the other half on social media. Photo: Sicheslavska Prosvita/Facebook

And here are some more generic, typical motivational ones.

Karine Jean-Pierre @K_JeanPierre

SHARE.

Inspired Motivation Quotes @IMQuotes_Videos

If you are looking for true success, don’t worry about social status. Don’t waste your precious time and energy trying to impress others. Live below your means. That combined with hard work & persistence is what will take you to the top. #Motivation

Stan R. Mitchell @StanRMitchell

Saw a great quote on Instagram. "Stop calling it your dream and start calling it your plan." 👊💪🤠

Mike Jason @mikejason73

3 rules of thumb: 1) ain't nothin' easy 2) never take your first 'no' for an answer 3) everything is built on a personal relationship

Matthew Kobach @mkobach

What’s something a boss told you that has stuck with you your entire career?

Inspirational Quotes @TheQuoteBoook_

Opportunities don't happen, you create them.

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That’s it for this edition.

As a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love your fellow Americans. We need to pull this country together, and that starts with all of us.

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Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

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