The view from the front for 7/12/22.

Hi friend,

Happy Tuesday! Hope you had a great weekend!

My weekend didn’t go as planned — not in a bad way — but I had said in the last newsletter that I had planned a special edition on the impact of long-range rockets in Ukraine (HIMARS).

I had planned to do this probably on Sunday, but a couple of different spontaneous family events popped up that prevented me from getting to that. (One of those events might have involved a trip to Dollywood on what was supposed to be a spotty-shower day but was really more of a never-ending, rain-soaked day. lol. The other might have involved several hours (many hours?) at a number of Tanger outlets, where I can assure you we did our part to help keep the American economy humming.)

Nonetheless, the special edition I had planned on the impact of long-range rockets in Ukraine remains timely, and I can’t really push it back much longer.

SOOOOO… I’m just going to make it a part of this edition. A sort of double-edition, which seems oh-so-appropriate for my first paywalled edition anyway.

You drop a little cash in the hat, you get double what you were expecting. (At least today.)

I’ll do a regular edition, ending with the motivation, as always, and then after that, go into the impact of the HIMARS in Ukraine.

---

We’ll start today with Japan.

Following the assassination of Shinzo Abe (the former Japanese prime minister), the current government intends to change Japan’s constitution. This was a key desire of Abe’s.

For a summary of the situation, see the excellent video below. It provides a quick overview of the country’s pacifist constitution (now 75 years old), the history of the country’s alliance with the United States, and the threats Japan faces.

Council on Foreign Relations @CFR_org

Japan's constitution has remained unchanged since 1947. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he will initiate efforts to reform the pacifist constitution, a longtime goal of assassinated former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

---

In Ukraine, there were three things I wanted to share.

First, the United States approved more aid to Ukraine. (You can see the full image of everything included below that tweet.)

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III @SecDef

Our Ukraine 🇺🇦 security assistance efforts continue. Yesterday evening, we announced another $400m in aid, including four more HIMARS systems and ammunition for those systems.

This additional aid is clearly wonderful news for Ukraine.

The second thing I wanted to share was this wonderful video, which shows Ukrainian troops retaking Snake Island and already starting to set-up defensive equipment.

Rob Lee @RALee85

Video of Ukrainian SSO on Snake Island. t.me/SoldiersofUkra…

Finally, Ukraine is claiming it now has 1 million folks in uniform (including police and national guard units. Furthermore, Ukraine is saying it plans to retake at least all of the southern area that was seized. (I’ll share a map of that below.) Here’s the news, however.

The Times and The Sunday Times @thetimes

🔺 EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia, the nation’s defence minister has revealed to The Times thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrain…

thetimes.co.ukUkraine has one million ready for fightback to recapture southUkraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia, the nation’s defence minister h

From the story:

Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia, the nation’s defence minister has revealed to The Times.

In his first interview with a British newspaper since the invasion began, Oleksii Reznikov said President Zelensky had ordered Ukraine’s military to retake occupied coastal areas which are vital to the country’s economy.

And here’s a map of the land that Russia has seized to date:

Ukraine War Map @War_Mapper

A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 12/07/22. There have been no notable changes to control since the last update.

In the image above, you can see the red that Ukraine certainly wants to take. (In the purple at the bottom is the peninsula of Crimea. Russia formally seized that in 2014. While there are some various comments out there about the future, I think ultimately, Ukraine wants to retake Crimea, as well.

Furthermore, I think the Ukrainian people want to take it back. In my opinion, they will see the peninsula, which is connected to mainland Russia by a bridge, as a foothold that Russia could use again to invade Ukraine in the future.

---

Moving along, there was some crazy news in Sri Lanka. If you look below, you’ll see that Sri Lanka is an island located just south of India.

And just a few days ago, the following happened there:

ian bremmer @ianbremmer

presidential palace in sri lanka stormed, ransacked. just incredible footage

All of this came mostly out of the blue, but here’s the bigger story from CNN if you’re interested.

What's next for Sri Lanka as angry protesters occupy their leaders' luxury houses?

---

Let’s end the news portion there (minus the HIMARS stuff below).

In an unrelated topic, how crazy is this little factoid?

Derek Thompson @DKThomp

Rumors of the death of the movie theater were greatly exaggerated. Summer of 2022 has already had - the biggest Memorial Day opening ever - the biggest July 4th opening ever - the 3rd time ever that two different films topped $100M in consecutive weekends

Franklin Leonard @franklinleonard

"Only the 3rd time 2 different films topped $100M in consecutive weekends" is certainly worthy of note. https://t.co/38jt4On54Q

I must say that I was quite convinced of the demise of movie theaters, but I’ve spent some money myself watching the big screen in the past few months and it’s been a nice (past) experience that I must confess I had missed.

Let’s hope they never go away.

---

One other amazing, non-news factoid.

How insane is this image, and the story above it?! (And we thought Maverick flew a Navy jet on his low-altitude passes of carriers!)

---

We’ll end with a humourous note before we get to the motivation and HIMARS.

Watching the video below, I think it’s not only hilarious, but I think there’s a lesson there: it’s not just humans that struggle with parenting! lol

Science girl @gunsnrosesgirl3

Watch this mother bear trying to get her cubs across the road

---

Finally, here’s the motivation and wisdom for today.

Motivational Quotes @MotivateMsgs

Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly. - Robert F. Kennedy

Success Minded @_SuccessMinded_

If you think you can, you will. If you think you can't, you'll never. Mindset is everything.

N. M. Curry @realPatriot_7

You cannot keep a determined person from success…

Success Minded @_SuccessMinded_

The Growth Journey is simply refusing to accept what society has taught you, Unlearning, and making better decisions.

Motivational Quotes @MotivateMsgs

The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. -Eleanor Roosevelt

Success Minded @_SuccessMinded_

"Never too young to start an empire. Never too old to chase a dream."

N. M. Curry @realPatriot_7

---

Now for the promised edition on the effect of long-range rockets in Ukraine (HIMARS).

The newly-arrived rockets have been wrecking things for the Russian, attacking many of Putin’s massive ammunition depots. (See below.)

Ukraine Battle Map @ukraine_map

Map of 30 HIMARS Strikes (July 9) The map below shows 30 HIMARS strikes on Russian Ammunition Depots, Command Centers, Transportation Hubs, and Oil Depots Ukrainian Forces received HIMARS MLRS launchers in late June and currently posses at least 8 HIMARS #UkraineWar #Ukraine 🇺🇦

And here are just some of the various videos of these explosions. (See, you get to relive July 4th twice this year.) I’ll explain why all of this matters below the videos.

ELINT News @ELINTNews

Potential significant ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Alchevsk, 40km+ behind the frontline in Luhansk region hit tonight. Seems like a probable HIMARS strike by Ukrainian forces given the range and accuracy of the strike

Status-6 @Archer83Able

A Russian/NM DNR ammo depot in the vicinity of Shakhtarsk, Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, was burning heavily this morning, with multiple secondary explosions seen at the site. Shakhtarsk is located approx. 55km away from the current frontline.

Visegrád 24 @visegrad24

Another spectacular video from the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian weapons depot in Nova Kakhovka earlier tonight.

Artoir @ItsArtoir

Jesus. This is an enormous explosion. POV is at least 4-5km from the blast. Reportedly in occupied Khartsyzk. Also, headphone warning.

Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv

Ukraine has just hit Russia..hard.. Massive ammunition depot in Russian occupied Nova Kakhovka.

These attacks are huge for Ukraine because of the insane amount of ammunition consumption that the Russians typically use. (Note: this video below isn’t normal).)

OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical

Ukrainian PzH-2000 155mm SPG firing a shot about once every 8 seconds

Already, these attacks are hurting Russian morale. Check out the thread below. It’s kind of mind-blowing.

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

The arrival of HIMARS in Ukraine seems to be causing a real outbreak of despondency among Russian commentators on Telegram. This one is from commentator Dmitryev, who has around 100K followers. @mdmitri91 @RALee85

t.meДимитриевО чем говорят первые недели использования HIMARS на Украине? О том, что выйти из войны сохранив лицо уже не получится. Были варианты, что это удастся, но тогда ещё - в марте, апреле, мае. Типа того, что взять Донецкую, Луганскую, юг и закрепиться на несколько лет, до новой войны. Использовать эти го…

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

Translation: What do the first weeks of HIMARS use in Ukraine tell us? That it will not be possible to get out of the war while saving face. There were options to do so, but back then - in March, April, May. /1

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

Like taking Donetsk [and] Luhansk [regions] and the south and establishing a foothold for a few years, until a new war. To use these years for creation of new military structures. But no, such an opportunity will not be given. /2

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

Missiles will fly all the way through the line of demarcation, to the opposite side as well. Ukraine will become an artillery range and will be destroyed during the years of confrontation, the western part of Russia is also under attack. /3

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

There is no power to push the front to the west, even if they [the Russians] drive a million mobilised people there. /4

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

In Donbass, the Russian Armed Forces managed to create a local offensive advantage and the Russian command assumed that it would now be possible to slowly push the border westwards from city to city, but now the AFU has an antidote - they are smashing ammunition depots. /5

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

I am trying to understand what can stop this negative scenario developing - when Ukraine becomes a field of missile war and Russia gets bogged down in losses and subsequent socio-economic problems - and I can't think of anything. /6

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki

To be honest, I don't see a military solution. The only thing that can reduce its intensity is some kind of global crisis, with crises in each specific country, which will push the causes of the war, very abstract, into the background. /end

Best of all, as I mentioned above, the United States has pledged even more HIMARS to Ukraine, just last week.

Department of Defense 🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense

On July 8, the United States committed to providing four additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammunition to 🇺🇦 Ukraine.

And what this all means long-term is the logistical hurdles that Russia will now face with its soft-skinned trucks.

Here’s a long, but absolutely-worth-it thread about that very thing.

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

The sound of russian ammo blowing up in Donetsk. What does this mean for russian logistics? A thread 🧵: Since 2014-15 russia built dozens of ammo dumps hidden in civilian buildings near railway stations in the parts of Ukraine it occupies. 1/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

russian logistics depots are always close to railways as russia's military has a serious lack of logistic units, especially transport units. This is compounded by russia's military being corrupt and technologically backwards, even eschewing things like forklifts or cranes. 2/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

So russian supplies and ammo are loaded by hand onto trains, transported towards the front, unloaded there by hand, loaded onto trucks by hand, and then driven to the frontline units, where it is unloaded again by hand. It's time consuming. No other army is so backwards. 3/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

So how did russian ammo supply in Donbas work until Ukraine received M142 HIMARS with long-range GMLRS rockets and highly accurate PzH 2000, AHS Krab, and CAESAR self-propelled howitzers? Well: 1) in russia 2,000 to 4,000 of tons of ammo were loaded onto a train 4/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

2) the train entered Ukraine, stopped at various points 30-40 km from the front, ammo was unloaded and stored nearby 3) then frontline units sent their trucks to pick up the ammo they needed The same applied for fuel, spares, food, etc. 5/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

So dependent are the russians on railways that they have 28,500 railway troops tasked with repairing and building railways. Like i.e. this bridge they built over the Oskil river to supply their planned upcoming offensive from Izium towards Sloviansk. 6/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

When russia's military can't access railways then its entire logistics system collapses. The russian advance East of Kyiv failed when the russians couldn't capture the railways passing through Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. With cities like Nizhyn, Chernihiv and Sumy stubbornly 7/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

defended by Ukrainian troops, russia had to truck its supplies to its troops East of Kyiv... and that failed spectacularly, as russian troops can't move more than 90-100 km from their supply depots and at that range russia can only supply its units for defensive operations. 8/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

The distance from railways in russia to Brovary outside Kyiv is 350 km... 300 km of which were swarming with Ukrainian special forces and partisans looking to blow up russian supply columns (photo). Now in Donbas, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia russia can supply its troops by train. 9/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

This allows russia to bring forward the 10,000s of tons of artillery ammo it expends every week; and send the replacement tanks, howitzers, etc. needed to replace russia's immense material losses, and the needed fuel. But now the russian ammo depots and supply points 10/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

are within range of artillery and rockets. AHS Krab, PzH 2000, and CAESAR can use base bleed projectiles with 40 km range (photo: a CAESAR firing a base bleed projectile). Furthermore these howitzers' use modern fire control systems, which use GPS to establish their own 11/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

position and then use the target's GPS coordinates to calculate the correct elevation and deflection of the barrel, then automatically move the barrel into position. All three systems also use radar to measure a fired projectile's speed & adjust the barrel after each shot. 12/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

Never before had Ukraine artillery with such accuracy and such range. This allows Ukraine to hit russian supply depots up to 35 km behind the front with pinpoint accuracy. And thanks to 10,000s of Ukrainian patriots in the russian occupied territories Ukraine knows the 13/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

coordinates of EVERY russian ammo depot. And now Ukraine also received GMLRS. GMLRS retains full accuracy up to 85 km. This allows Ukraine to land a rocket precisely onto a building 85 km away and set the fuze to detonate the 50 pounds of PBX-109 inside the building. 14/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

And if it is a large target (i.e. a warehouse) then Ukraine can hit it even if it is further away then 85 km. These two new artillery capabilities have two effects: 1) russia is right now losing 1,000s of tons of ammo 2) russia can't store ammo within 100 km of the front 15/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

Every destroyed depot reduces the ammo available to russia's massive number of artillery systems at the front. And russia has to replace this lost ammo. First it can't produce as much as it uses and loses, so russia is already shipping old Soviet ammo from Belarus to Donbas. 16/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

Secondly russia can't bring this ammo within range of Ukrainian artillery and GMLRS... and has to stop the trains now 90-100 km away from the front or else the ammo dump and train will be destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. Ammo and supplies 100 km from the front means 17/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

that russia again has to rely on trucks to supply its frontline units. But russia already lost at least 1,200+ of its truck fleet and the remainder has been in use for months now - and russia's famous lack of maintenance is surely taking a huge toll on the remaining trucks. 18/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

So how will russian logistics "work" now? 1) trains will stop 100 km from the front and ammo will be unloaded by hand 2) trucks will be loaded by hand and then drive to the front. Loading by hand takes hours and driving 100 km in a rear combat zone takes more hours 19/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

Worse for russia - russian trucks carry less tonnage then Western military trucks and unlike Western ammo russian ammo comes in bulky wooden boxes. • russian ammo trucks transport mostly wood • Western ammo trucks (photo) transport almost only bang🔥 20/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

3) the russian trucks finally arrive at the front 4) the ammo is unloaded (by hand) 5) the trucks return to the railheads At this distance russian truckers will struggle to make more than one supply run per day... and if the russians don't plan their supply runs perfectly 21/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

then some units will get too little ammo, others too much - which is worse: because what do you with the extra ammo? Drop it on the ground or have the trucks stay with the unit until the ammo is needed? If you drop it on the ground and the unit has to move... well then the 22/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

ammo is lost. If you keep the trucks with the unit, then no one is driving back to get more ammo. And while NATO armies use software and AI to plan their supply runs, russians use officers' guts... this wouldn't matter if russia had enough trucks, but having lost so many 23/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

trucks of the already few ones it began the war with russia is now even less capable to supply units 100 km from railways. russia is a 20th century military with 19th century logistics... and now it is fighting an army receiving 21st century weapons. It will take time, but 24/n

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

while NLAW, Javelin and Stinger helped Ukraine win the Battle of Kyiv; now CAESAR, AHS Krab, PzH 2000 and especially GMLRS will help Ukraine win the Battle for Donbas and the Battle for Kherson. Because: Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics. 25/.

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

While doing this thread @TrentTelenko did a russian logistics thread too :-) Understandably - Ukraine wrecking russia's already wobbly logistics is what we will hear about a lot in the coming weeks and months. Check out his thread too:

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko

I haven't talked truck logistics in a while. This thread 🧵will revisit truck logistics of the Russo-Ukrainian War. 1. What we thought we knew. 2. The logistical truth on the ground. 3. And how Ukraine's new HIMARS/GMLRS weapons are kicking over the logistical table. 1/

And here’s a little

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 @Noahpinion

The basic story of the Ukraine War over the last month is that Russia retreated to places where it could supply its artillery by railroad instead of truck, and then the U.S. gave Ukraine HIMARS (missile trucks) that could reach Russia's rail-supplied depots.

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko

Russian milbloggers are already screaming bloody murder about Russian MUNITIONS HUNGER (!) in Ukraine. That’s the force that a month ago was sweeping off everything in front of it to advance through charred ruins. https://t.co/5RZaYSnpYZ

As you can see, HIMARS might just completely turn things against the Russians.

Let’s hope so.

---

That’s it for this edition.

As a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love your fellow Americans. We need to pull this country together, and that starts with all of us.

And if you love what you’re reading, throw a couple of bucks in the hat by subscribing below. (It’ll get you set up to receive each Tuesday edition, as well as any special editions, and here’s why you should.)

Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I’ve written a CIA/Marine sniper series, a detective series, a private investigator series, an action-packed Western, a leadership/biography book, and two realistic war novels: one about World War IIand one about Afghanistan.

P.P.S. And here’s a short bio about me and what I’m trying to do with the newsletter.