The view from the front: military matters and motivation for 6/3/22.

Stan R. Mitchell

Jun 3

Hi friend,

Happy Friday!! Hope you have some wonderful plans for the weekend!

The biggest news since Tuesday was the below, which is huge for Ukraine.

Natasha Bertrand @NatashaBertrand

News: The Biden admin is preparing to send Ukraine advanced, long-range rocket systems—known as MLRS and HIMARS—that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say. Approval could be announced as soon as next week.

US preparing to approve advanced long-range rocket system for Ukraine as Russian TV host warns of crossing a ‘red line’The Biden administration is preparing to step up the kind of weaponry it is offering Ukraine by sending advanced, long-range rocket systems that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.cnn.com

If you want to know why this is a HUGE deal, check out the incredibly-detailed thread below. It’s absolutely worth the read to see the edge these have over Russian weapons systems.

Thomas C. Theiner @noclador

Angry thread about M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS 🧵 and a bit about BM-27 Uragan and BM-30 Smerch too. Angry, because every M270 and M142 thread I have seen on twitter so far is FULL OF MIND BOGGLING ERRORS... because all of them (!) use as source of their "knowledge" the 1/n

Moving along, this wasn’t exactly a small deal for Ukraine in itself.

Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 @michaeldweiss

Wow. "The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said."

EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sourcesThe Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.reuters.com

Moving from land to sea matters, I’ve been writing about the Russian blockade for several editions, and another potential solution came up this week.

Alex Marquardt @MarquardtA

The US is working to get temporary storage containers - like bags or boxes - for Ukrainian grain into the country to try to salvage some the 22+ million tons of grain currently stuck inside Ukraine.

US officials looking to salvage Ukrainian grain with no good solution yet to Russia’s export blockadeThe Biden administration is working to get temporary storage containers for Ukrainian grain into the country, a stopgap measure as it seeks to mitigate a growing food crisis caused by Russia’s months-long blockade of Ukrainian ports, administration officials told CNN.cnn.com

From the story:

These storage containers -- such as bags or boxes -- could help salvage some of the more than 20 million tons of grain that are currently stuck inside Ukraine. They could also help Ukraine load the grain onto trains or trucks out of the country once overland routes are established, a senior administration official explained.

Pretty cool idea for sure, and I’m glad the Administration and the world is working hard on this serious problem.

While all of this is happening from the Ukraine side of the house, Russia continues to show some strain and weakness happening. As proof, take a gander at this.

Chuck Pfarrer @ChuckPfarrer

ITS SPREADING: Russian troops are refusing to return to fight in Ukraine. It's estimated that a sizeable minority of Russian contract soldiers who fought in the initial invasion have refused to go back.

The Russian soldiers refusing to fight in UkraineBecause of their experiences on the front line, some troops are seeking legal advice to avoid being redeployed.bbc.com

I really can’t blame those quoted in that story. I mean, would you want to go back after learning the glaring realities of combat in Ukraine (after being sold a total spin job about Nazi’s)?

But, the Russians being Russians, this news broke, as well.

Chuck Pfarrer @ChuckPfarrer

PUTIN’s LOCUSTS: @HannaLiubakova reports that RU troops occupying the Chernobyl nuclear plant looted more that $120M worth of critical safety gear, computers, vehicles, radiation dosemeters, reactor software-- and nearly all of the fire-fighting equipment.

Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova

The list of what #Russia’s occupying forces stole from Chernobyl’s laboratories was compiled by @washingtonpost: - 689 computers - 344 vehicles - 1,500 radiation dosimeters - Irreplaceable software - Almost every piece of firefighting equipment The estimated cost $135 million https://t.co/DbVqCwQJjQ

Have I mentioned this week yet that my opinion of Russians continues to plummet lower and lower? (Calm down, Stan. No rant needed here. Keep moving, like they told you in the Marines.)

Despite so many atrocities and violations of laws, Ukraine continues to inspire with its apparent abundance of leadership. From the lowest ranks to the highest (such as its President, who didn’t flee, and this billionaire below), it’s almost mind-boggling how the country and its residents are pulling together.

Check out this amazing story.

NPR @NPR

One of Ukraine's wealthiest men, Vsevolod Kozhemyako, has set up his own battalion to fight Russian forces. He funds, trains and leads a light infantry unit on the front lines.

A look inside the Ukrainian ‘billionaire’s battalion’ fighting Russian forcesVsevolod Kozhemyako, one of Ukraine’s wealthiest men, has set up his own battalion to fight Russian forces. He funds, trains and leads a light infantry unit on the front lines.n.pr

Moving to a different part of the globe, let’s move to China now. There are a couple of news items I want to share, and then a brief bit of conjecture.

First, in news, there’s this, which is a little jarring.

OSINTdefender @sentdefender

In the next 10 years by 2030 China is planning to have 6 Full-Aircraft Carriers to lead 5 Carrier Strike Groups around the World, with a further 8 Amphibious Assault Ships which can launch Helicopters and possibly limited Fixed-Wing Aircraft depending on the situation.

That’s quite a naval threat, which will push out and expand the influence of China.

Secondly, China has hit some recent bumps in the road. (I guess jailing people who speak out and loading up people on trains is starting to hurt their brand a bit.)

BBC News (World) @BBCWorld

Have China's Pacific ambitions been thwarted?

Have China’s Pacific ambitions been thwarted?Ten Pacific countries have declined to sign a sweeping security deal proposed by China.bbc.in

Now for that bit of conjecture.

I had a kind and loyal reader/subscriber reach out after the last newsletter, in which I dinged President Biden for making three gaffes on the same point (about American defending Taiwan).

The reader asked two questions regarding Biden’s statement. His questions were that given that China flew 30 fighters near Taiwan:

1. Which Nation is overreacting?

2. Which message is received more in the Pacific?

After thinking on those two questions, and thanking him for the question, I told the reader that I think China was going to fly those fighters near Taiwan no matter what Biden said.

But upon a little more reflection, here’s what I think is happening (which I shared with him and I’ll now share with you).

I think Biden making the same mistake three times is not an accident. I think our government is telling allies that he absolutely means it. That this is the stubborn, cranky Biden that means it. The one with the backbone that left Afghanistan no matter what how bad that destroyed his poll numbers.

But while they’re saying this to allies to re-assure them of American commitment to Asia, I think these same administration folks are telling China and the media that the statements are nothing. That Biden is just a gaffe machine and we shouldn’t sweat what he’s saying. That he “mis-spoke.”

Doing this accomplishes a couple of things. First, it keeps China from being pushed over the edge in the short term into attacking Taiwan pre-maturely. At the same time, it buys our country some runway, so that America can continue its pivot and re-alignment to counter the great dragon in the East.

What do you all think? Am I crazy? (Or am I dead on the mark like the time I got lucky predicting a possible solution to breaking up the Russian blockade?)

I welcome any comments below or by email or social media.

As a brief reflection on history, I thought I’d share this since this was beaten into nearly every Marine’s brain from the first day of boot camp.