The view from the front for 7/8/22.

Jul 08, 2022

Hi friend,

Happy Friday, everyone! Hope you’ve had a wonderful week and have big plans for the weekend.

A bit of news here before we get to the other news.

From this point forward, my posts on Tuesdays will be moving behind a paywall and will be only for paid subscribers.

Fridays will remain free, but if you want the full newsletter twice a week (and I hope you do), you’ll have to become a paid subscriber. (It’s fifty dollars per year or five dollars per month. Click below.)

Obviously, there’s absolutely no pressure to fork over your hard cash, and I think a free preview with a decent portion of the newsletter will arrive in your emails on Tuesday, even if you don’t sign up as a paying member.

But I’ve been putting out this newsletter for an entire year now, and I’ve been putting it out twice a week for at least the past six or seven months.

I put a lot of work into this newsletter and it’s time to take it to an even higher level.

And part of reaching that higher level will not only include making each edition better (because it’s more sustainable time-wise thanks to your support!), but also will likely include a podcast that I’m just starting to fool around with. It also might include something else that I’m not mentioning yet. The podcast (and the other thing, if I do it) will also be behind the paywall of Substack except on Fridays.

Also, there might even be some additional frequency of things for the paying folks, such as when there’s major breaking news. But for now, just know that if you chip in $5 per month, you definitely get full Tuesday editions (and whatever other future, crazy things I do).

Here’s the link one more time:

We begin the news part of this edition with the downfall of Boris Johnson over in Britain. (UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigns after mutiny in his party.)

Reuters had the following to say about his departure and the state of the country.

His term in office was ended by scandals that included breaches of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown rules, a luxury renovation of his official residence and the appointment of a minister who had been accused of sexual misconduct.
…
Johnson is leaving behind an economy in crisis. Britons are facing the tightest squeeze on their finances in decades in the wake of the pandemic, with soaring inflation. The economy is forecast to be the weakest among major nations in 2023 apart from Russia.
His departure also follows years of internal division sparked by the narrow 2016 vote to leave the European Union, and threats to the make-up of the United Kingdom itself with demands for another Scottish independence referendum, the second in a decade.

One thing that won’t change is the support the country has shown for Ukraine. This has been stated in several sources. Additionally, though Johnson is going to try to stay in power, his rivals are already trying to shove him out.

In other national figure news, there was an assassination last night in Japan. (See below.)

The Associated Press @AP

Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest serving prime minister, has died after being shot during a campaign speech. Abe, 67, was perhaps the most polarizing, complex politician in recent Japanese history. He left the PM job in 2020 but remained highly influential. bit.ly/3Rnt5UT

Shinzo Abe speaks during a news conference in 2013. Text overlaid the image is his name and 1954 - 2022.

Abe led the movement of Japan’s government and military to be much more prepared for the coming aggression out of China.

Derek J. Grossman @DerekJGrossman

Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was the true brains behind the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. From his "two oceans" approach that conceptualized Pacific and Indian Oceans together, to his "security diamond" of like-minded democracies (precursor to Quad), his legacy is gigantic. RIP.

David Frum said that Abe "was more than the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese democratic history." That Abe deserves to be remembered as one of the great internationalists of his era.

For a good summary of his life and impact, check out this link: Shinzo Abe, powerful former Japan PM, leaves divided legacy.

Let’s discuss Ukraine briefly.

Nothing huge has happened there since Tuesday, but I wanted to share this tweet below. Because it’s just so ludicrous. Just so Putin-esque.

Sky News @SkyNews

Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin's warning that Russia has barely started its action

news.sky.comUkraine war: Vladimir Putin’s warning that Russia has barely started its actionThe Russian president insists he is ready to sit down for talks to end the fighting - but that “those who refuse to do so should know that the longer it lasts the more difficult it will be for them to make a deal with us”.

How insane is that comment? You’re on your third invasion, have pretty much completely had your butt handed to you, and you’re claiming you’ve barely started.

And I love the spirit of the Ukrainian people. Such as this incredible response:

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko

I may be wrong, but when a military force of nearly 45 battalion tactical groups spends 3 months storming two mediocre-sized cities, after which it is so depleted that it needs a long operational pause - I don’t see how Russia intends to take the rest of Ukraine.

Or this one (though I’m not sure this person is from Ukraine, it’s too good not to share):

gandalv @Microinteracti1

@IAPonomarenko After struggling for 3 months to take two mediocre-sized cities, Russia is going to take Alaska. Putin has humiliated Russia for centuries to come.

General Mark Hertling had this to say about the news.

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling

Kinda what I’ve been saying for awhile. Take away Russia’s artillery & there’s little power behind the rest of their force. They haven’t trained in moving, shooting, logistics or communicating…the essence of combined arms operations. https://t.co/CcrW7s6wNH

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko

One final Ukraine thought, while we’re on the subject. (And we all know the following is completely true, even with our own history of foreign interventions.)

David B. Larter @DavidLarter

Ukraine is increasingly looking like a quagmire, and the clock never favors the occupier.

There’s more I want to say about Ukraine, but space limitations. lol.

Having said that, I mentioned above about potential increased frequency for paid subscribers. And the first one I want to do will be out soon.

And by soon I mean, unless something changes, there will be a Ukraine-only post coming out probably this weekend about a sort of in-depth thing I want to discuss.

Moving along, I haven’t had a chance to dig in on this topic (and I have such mixed views on the news), but the news is the news. (Shared with a tear or two in my eye.)

Dave Brown @dave_brown24

Some big A-10 news tonight: Lawmakers may have finally found a way to grant the Air Force's longstanding request to start retiring the aging warplanes politico.com/news/2022/06/1… @connorobrienNH @LeeHudson_ #FY23NDAA

Here’s a bit more about it.

Oriana Pawlyk @Oriana0214

“The full committee’s defense policy bill will permit the retirement of 21 A-10s stationed at Fort Wayne Air National Guard Base in Indiana, clearing the way for the Air Force to replace them with F-16 fighters.”

Dave Brown @dave_brown24

Some big A-10 news tonight: Lawmakers may have finally found a way to grant the Air Force's longstanding request to start retiring the aging warplanes https://t.co/AmTCE01GN6 @connorobrienNH @LeeHudson_ #FY23NDAA https://t.co/Jw14G2oDbM

And having just shared this, I think I’ll probably do a full post on A-10s and their future (or lack thereof) in an additional post here soon, as well.

Moving to the Middle East, I’m sharing the below just so you can see the location of the Red Sea. (If your geography is like mine, a reminder probably doesn’t hurt.)

Now that you’ve seen where the Red Sea is, Israel’s defense minister stated this week that Iran is building up its military presence in the Red Sea.

He called it a threat to regional stability and trade.

In an article titled, “Israel warns of Iranian warships in Red Sea,” Defense Minister Benny Gantz said, “Today, we can confirm that Iran is methodically basing itself in the Red Sea, with warships patrolling the southern region.”

From the article:

“In the last months, we have identified the most significant Iranian military presence in the area, in the past decade,” he said. Gantz’s office said he presented satellite images of four Iranian warships patrolling the Red Sea.
Iran has been building up its naval presence in the Red Sea over more than a decade in a move that it says is needed to protect Iranian oil tankers against the threat of piracy.

I’m sure we’ll hear more about this in the coming weeks and months, but this is probably just one of the reasons that Israel and Saudi Arabia have been moving closer together.

See:

Saudi Arabia and Israel quietly prepare 'deal of the century'

Saudi Arabia Moves Toward Eventual Ties With Israel - WSJ

Israel and Saudi Arabia 'in talks over joint defence against Iran' — The Guardian.

I’ll try to dig more into this subject at some point in the future.

Moving to our hemisphere, we all know that crime and corruption and cartels (the three C’s? okay, I just made that up) have been crushing Mexico’s economy for at least the past twenty or thirty years, but do want to see something that will completely blow your mind?

Check out the chart below, by economics whiz Noah Smith.

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 @Noahpinion

In 1990, Mexico was richer than Poland, Turkey, Romania and Malaysia. Not anymore.

Exactly. I told you that would blow your mind. (The topic of Mexico and its cartels and corruption has intrigued me for at least the past ten years. It’s partly why I wrote a book about it, called “Mexican Heat.”

Mexican Heat (Nick Woods Book 2) by [Stan R. Mitchell]

That book is a rip-roaring ride, but I really did almost get TOO into the weeds reading about the cartels, efforts to combat them, etc, etc.

Just seeing that post by Noah makes me realize that absolutely nothing has changed since I wrote the book in 2014. I might really dig into the matter in a future post to see what the latest is in the government’s current efforts to deal with the cartels.

Well, we’ve covered a lot today. Let’s end with some motivation and wisdom.

N. M. Curry @realPatriot_7

I’m sharing this because it made me smile. And because I think there’s a lesson in it. (Sometimes, the big scary thing that has you pushed against the wall isn’t really out to get you. It’s out to help you. A fact we often forget.)