Ukraine counteroffensive, Edition 6. Date 6-10-23

Five thoughts about the shown Ukrainian losses. And one big conclusion.

Hello, my friends!

I wanted to send you the latest news about the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

As a reminder, I will likely send out additional updates each day. Maybe even twice a day if there are major breakthroughs or big news.

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Russia and Ukraine news:

It’s 4:45 p.m. on Saturday afternoon, and I wanted to send the latest update. As I wrote late last night, the big news right now is that there is no big news.

And that hasn’t changed.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said today — in response to a question stating that Putin was bragging about stopping the Ukrainians — that things were progressing as planned.

“I am in touch with our commanders of different directions every day,” Zelenskyy said, citing the names of five of Ukraine’s top military leaders. “Everyone is positive. Pass this on to Putin.”

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I promised yesterday to go in-depth about a tank battle/probing action that has all the analysts abuzz.

Let’s do that, but I begin with this caveat. This is the third day the Russians have been pushing this.

Here’s another view of what the Russians keep peddling, which to be fair, looks terrible. (And this is why everyone is abuzz about it.)

Like, I’m not lying.

This is literally what all the analysts, cheerleaders, and critics have been discussin the past few days.

Here are five thoughts about this and one, final large conclusion.

Point 1. Delay in western powers sending tanks allowed the Russians to build up their defenses.

Point 2. Much of the damanaged vehicles will be repaired and re-used. Their crews still alive thanks to how Western tanks are made.

As General Hertling added, this shows the important need for trained maintenance teams to conduct rapid BDAR (battle damage assessment and repair).

Point 3. We’re drawing a lot of big conclusions based on one small bit of imagery online. It’s still early.

Point 4. Making mistakes like this and bunching up is a part of the process by newer-ish troops. This is simply how you get better.

Point 5. Ugly, early lossed preceeded the last, massive Ukrainian offensive.

Final big conclusion: We all expected a huge, armored fist through one hole. It’s clear the Ukrainians are going to take their time in the hopes this reduces casualties.

A reminder on what the real goal is in the short-term.

The real goal of this counteroffensive is to cut the landbridge, and then starve the troops cut off and those left stranded on the Crimean Peninsula.

From the BBC:

What will success look like?

If Ukrainian forces can punch through Russian lines, all the way to the Sea of Azov, then any Russian troops west of that breach will suddenly be much more vulnerable, dependent entirely on supply lines through the Crimean Peninsula.

All that would then remain, Serhii Kuzan, co-founder and chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, says, would be to destroy the Kerch Bridge linking Russia with Crimea (briefly disabled by a huge truck bomb last October) and attack ships and planes being used to ferry supplies to the peninsula.

"That would be the end," he says. "But don't expect this to happen soon. It'll take months."

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Please join me again in our next episode, and please stay safe until then.

And with that, I’m out.

Love and peace,

Stan R. Mitchell

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