Ukraine counteroffensive, Edition 5. Date 6-9-23
Discover more from The View from the Front. By Stan R. Mitchell.
Ukraine counteroffensive, Edition 5. Date 6-9-23
Hello, my friends!
I wanted to send you the latest news about the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
As a reminder, I will likely send out additional updates each day. Maybe even twice a day if there are major breakthroughs or big news.
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Russia and Ukraine news:
I’m writing this as of 10:59 p.m. on Friday night.
The big news right now is that there is no big news.
I’ll go in-depth a bit tomorrow about a tank battle/probing action that has all the analysts abuzz, but for now, let’s share two brief things.
First, the real goal of this counteroffensive has become absolutely clear. (It’s not to clear all of Ukraine of the invaders, though that’s the long-term goal.)
The real goal of this counteroffensive is to cut the landbridge, and then starve the troops cut off and those left stranded on the Crimean Peninsula.
What will success look like?
If Ukrainian forces can punch through Russian lines, all the way to the Sea of Azov, then any Russian troops west of that breach will suddenly be much more vulnerable, dependent entirely on supply lines through the Crimean Peninsula.
All that would then remain, Serhii Kuzan, co-founder and chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, says, would be to destroy the Kerch Bridge linking Russia with Crimea (briefly disabled by a huge truck bomb last October) and attack ships and planes being used to ferry supplies to the peninsula.
"That would be the end," he says. "But don't expect this to happen soon. It'll take months."
The Washington Post echoed these thoughts and added that no massive, smashing attack has been unleashed yet.
A senior Western intelligence official told The Post that, for now, Ukraine appeared to be holding back its most significant firepower, noting that the larger blow “hasn’t landed yet.” The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.
Ukraine’s military is armed with a potent U.S. arsenal. Washington has committed 90 Stryker personnel carriers and more than 100 Bradley Fighting Vehicles. The Strykers and Bradleys are generally faster, more advanced and better protected than the aging Soviet and Russian vehicles that the Ukrainians operate, but they are more technically challenging to maintain in the field. The United States has also pledged 31 Abrams tanks, but they will not be ready until September at the earliest.
I’ll send more tomorrow. Thank you for your support.
Love and peace,
Stan R. Mitchell
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