Ukraine counteroffensive, Edition 8. Are things going well?
Hello, my friends!
I wanted to send you the latest news about the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
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Russia and Ukraine news:
I’m not going to lie. This article today has been a little hard to write.
That’s because as someone who’s been a huge cheerleader for Ukraine (and the fight for freedom against foreign invaders), things are looking pretty rough for the good guys. (And yes, the Ukrainians are the good guys.)
I could sugarcoat things and show impressive attacking videos like the one below.
But I’d prefer to simply be dead honest with what I see. And what I see is a little concerning.
There are tons of stories, such as this one from The Associated Post.
Both sides suffer heavy casualties as Ukraine strikes back against Russia, UK assessment says
Russia and Ukraine are suffering high numbers of military casualties as Ukraine fights to dislodge the Kremlin’s forces from occupied areas in the early stages of its counteroffensive, British officials said Sunday.
Russian losses are probably at their highest level since the peak of the battle for Bakhmut in March, U.K. military officials said in their regular assessment.
According to British intelligence, the most intense fighting has centered on the southeastern Zaporizhzhia province, around Bakhmut and further west in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province. While the update reported that Ukraine was on the offensive in these areas and had “made small advances,” it said that Russian forces were conducting “relatively effective defensive operations” in Ukraine’s south.
The Washington Post is carrying similar reporting.
Situation in east is ‘difficult,’ says Ukraine’s deputy defense minister
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised his troops for waging tough counteroffensive battles in several regions during what he described in his nightly address as a “very important week.” Ukrainian forces continued to make limited gains in at least four sectors, the Institute for the Study of War think tank said in an analysis. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister said the situation in eastern Ukraine is “difficult,” with Russia conducting “hot battles” in the region.
…
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the war in Ukraine “will take a long time” and the world should be prepared. Scholz said Germany is adapting its policies for a long-term conflict and will “support Ukraine as long as it is necessary.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking with Scholz in Berlin, said that if Ukraine’s counteroffensive is successful, it will be in a stronger position in any eventual negotiations to end the conflict.
INCREDIBLY, Russia is actually on the offensive on part of the battlefield. From the same article:
Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar said the situation in eastern Ukraine is “difficult.” She said on Telegram that Russia is continuing an active offensive in the directions of Lyman and Kupiansk — with intense shelling and “hot battles,” she added — in what she said was part of Russia’s plans to reach the borders of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Two major items are making this incredibly difficult.
Part of the issue is re-positioned attack helicopters.
And part of the issue is Russia has been preparing for this attack for a long time.
Russia aims to defeat counteroffensive with mines, artillery, and aviation
As Ukraine readied its counteroffensive by gathering Western weapons and sending its troops for NATO training, Russia spent at least seven months preparing for this potentially definitive stage of the war — by readying reserves, artillery and aviation support, stockpiling ammunition and fuel, and procuring more drones.
Russian forces also burrowed into the territory they occupy in southeast Ukraine, digging lines of trenches and erecting fortifications along the entire 900-mile-long front line, from Zaporizhzhia to Russia’s Belgorod region.
The massive network of defenses has weaknesses, according to military experts who described Russia’s preparations, but it is already slowing offensive operations and creating bottlenecks for the Ukrainian army, forcing it to try to break through on narrow paths, which allows Russia to regroup and aim more precisely.
“They’ve had months to create a defensive plan, they’ve dug in and used the terrain, they’ve been sitting there for six months laying little traps and mines,” said Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at Rand Corp. “They feel as confident as they are probably going to feel that they understand their defensive lines.”
So absolute best case, things are difficult for Ukraine.
Things are so challenging, in fact, that… Ukraine is holding up their major attacks for now.
Ukrainian forces may be temporarily pausing counteroffensive operations to reevaluate their tactics for future operations. Head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg stated on June 16 that he assesses "we won't see an offensive over the next seven days.” The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on June 17 that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as Ukrainian command reexamines tactics. These reports are consistent with ISW’s recent observations of the scale and approach of localized Ukrainian counterattacks in southern and eastern Ukraine. ISW has previously noted that Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to counteroffensive operations and has not yet launched its main effort. Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings, and this pause does not signify the end of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
Now, if you look even a little bit online, you’ll seee some critics and pro-Russian accounts saying the Russians are winning, the counteroffensive is a flop, and this is a complete disaster for Ukraine and all its Western cheerleaders.
Russia literally maintains a 10-to-1 artillery advantage, which coupled with the attack helicopters, makes this a crushing challenge.
Plus, the Russian conscripts haven’t broken and there are intimidaing “barrier forces” of Russians — mostly pro-Russian Chechen units — who execute any Russian consripts who flee.
But I asked another serious Ukraine watcher his thoughts on the matter, and I’ll paste them below, but they come from this thread.
The account is called Ukraine News and it’s a great account to follow if you’re on Post.News.
Here is how Ukraine News sees it — and he generiously said I could quote his entire reply:
First off, I'm aware I'm not an expert, but I have my opinions like everyone else, so I'll try to sort them out.
Since December 2022 and until 11 days ago, I was expecting the counteroffensive to begin with massive attacks against the Russian rear (checked), targeted sabotage/shelling of Russian logistics in Zaporizhia, Kherson and Crimea (checked), probing along the Zaporizhia front (checked) and then... a massive crossing of the Dnipro around the area of Hola Prystan, in order to swiftly liberate all Kherson region that lies west of the Crimean canal, reach the 'neck' of the Crimean Peninsula and open a new front towards Melitopol from the west.
Of course, Russia blowing up the Kakhovka dam forced Ukraine to change plans. Whether Kherson was or not the main plan (which is just my personal opinion), I still believe Zaporizhia will not be the main axis of the counteroffensive, so we shouldn't pay too much attention to how much territory or how many settlements are liberated there. Ukraine is probing Russian defenses, forcing them to spend reserves, exposing exactly what they have and where, and trying to provoke Russia to leave another part of the front unprotected (quite like Kharkiv last year). If Ukraine sees the chance for a breakthrough in Zaporizhia, I'm sure they'll take it, but that is not the goal.
More to the point, I'm still very optimist mid and long term, and I see things currently going as expected, which is not great, not terrible. Keep in mind that Ukraine has shown so far only 3 or 4 of the more than 13 new brigades. Most of the recent advances have been achieved by formations that have been on the front for months.
Ukraine (and everyone else) always knew that Russia has more artillery and more aircraft, and even if the west has stepped up the delivery of air defense systems very recently, Ukraine has today hardly 1/10th of what it needs. Russian constant missile and drone attacks against the whole country also force Ukraine to use a large part of the scarce air defense systems it has, far from the frontline. If the west had started training Ukrainian pilots several months ago, they could have F16s now, and it would be a different story... but that didn't happen.
Luckily, Ukraine is used to plan according to what it has and not what it 'should have'. With what Ukraine currently has, this is what they can do. Go slowly, take and keep the initiative, push Russia to make a mistake and exploit it, target their command and logistics, try not to suffer excessive losses, and achieve tactical improvements when possible.
In short, the counteroffensive is just starting, it may take weeks or even months to be in full swing, and we all need to be patient. There will be good and bad days, and we need to be ready to accept that.
These comments make me feel a lot better about things, for sure.
What’s your take on the counteroffensive? What are you seeing? How are you feeling? Let me know below.
Love and peace,
Stan R. Mitchell
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