U.S. begins its response to the death of three American soldiers by hitting more than 85 targets
Strikes were in Iraq and Syria -- not Iran; includes my commentary on the situation at the bottom
I wanted to send you the latest news about the air strikes that began yesterday.
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Here’s the latest on attacks, and then I’ll share some commentary and insights below
First, the overall facts:
CENTCOM Statement on U.S. Strikes in Iraq and Syria
TAMPA, Fla. — At 4 p.m. on Friday, Feb. 2, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups.
U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from the United States.
The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions.
The facilities that were struck included command and control operations centers, intelligence centers, rockets, missiles, unmanned aerial vehicle storage, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors, who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces.
And here is what President Biden had this to say about the strikes.
Statement from President Joe Biden on U.S. Military Operation in the Middle East
This past Sunday, three American soldiers were killed in Jordan by a drone launched by militant groups backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Earlier today, I attended the dignified return of these brave Americans at Dover Airforce Base, and I have spoken with each of their families.
This afternoon, at my direction, U.S. military forces struck targets at facilities in Iraq and Syria that the IRGC and affiliated militia use to attack U.S. forces.
Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing.
The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.
And here’s a good look at the distribution of U.S. forces in the region:
Now for some of my commentary:
The attacks appear to be pretty extensive strikes, and they’re supposed to continue for days or weeks.
At this point, the ball is in Iran’s court. I’ve been saying for months that Iran wouldn’t desire war because the United States (and Israel) would use the opportunity to knock out Iran’s nuclear program, which they’ve been building up for at least ten years (but they aren’t there yet).
This isn’t just me saying this.
Michael Hayden, the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said a week ago that he thought there was only a one-in-five chance of actual conflict with Iran.
Please keep in mind that many in the media have been scaring Americans (for clicks and attention) about a war with Iran since the October surprise attack against Israel by Hamas. All of you all have seen this.
And three months later: I’ve been absolutely correct that this wouldn’t happen. I still don’t believe it will. (This is why you should share this post with a friend who watches too much fear-based news; let me help lower their blood-pressure. Also, it’s kind of wild, but in my Thursday podcast, I correctly predicted the $50 billion EU funding would pass “soon” — it did — and that strikes could begin on Friday; maybe I should head to Vegas lol)
Back to the point, don’t forget that just a year ago, Iran faced an internal uprising that nearly spiraled out of control when women stopped wearing veils/hijabs.
Plus, there is their beloved nuclear program in the mountains. Iran has far more to lose than we do.
These attacks WILL heighten the strain with our relationship with Iraq.
Quick recap: Two weeks ago, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani called a similar strike by the U.S. on Iraqi land “an act of aggression against Iraq and a setback to the historical relationship with Iran.” He pledged to “take all legal and diplomatic response measures.”
But he’s talked a big game before, while signaling privately he wants U.S. forces to stay:
Politico: Iraqi officials privately signal they want US forces to stay
Iraq’s prime minister privately told American officials that he wants to negotiate keeping U.S. forces in the country despite his recent announcement that he would begin the process of removing them from the country.
Senior advisers to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani told U.S. officials that his declaration was “an attempt to satisfy domestic political audiences” and that Sudani himself “remained committed” to negotiating the coalition’s future presence in Iraq, according to a Jan. 6 State Department cable obtained by POLITICO.
…
Iraq’s willingness to keep U.S. troops in the country is critical for the Biden administration. The U.S. sees its presence in Iraq as important for not only preventing a resurgence of ISIS but also for countering Iranian influence in the region. Any decision by al-Sudani to kick American forces out of the country could also undermine the administration’s effort to prevent the war in Gaza from widening.
While U.S. officials have been told that Iraq is willing to discuss keeping American forces in the country, it is possible that political machinations inside the Iraqi parliament force him to take steps to remove American forces.
I don’t think too much will change. While many Iraqi leaders hate the U.S. presence, the reality is the Iraqi government is weak and faces threats in the east from Iranian pressure/influence and in the west by powerful militias, remnants of ISIS, and even the Kurds.
Love and peace,
Stan R. Mitchell
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Stan, thanks for this. Good update.